WeatherBrains 227: Hurricane Season Begins
Hurricane Season 2010 Predictions

Predictor JB Spann Murray Selle Jones Actuals
(11/04/2010)
Named Storms 15 10 18 13 20 19
Hurricanes 9 7 11 7 9 12
Major Hurricanes Cat 3-5 4 3 6 4 4 5
Cat 5 Hurricanes 2 1 2 0 2 0
US Landfall 3 5 5 4 5 1
US Hurricane Landfall 2 2 3 2 4 0
Lowest Pressure 920 923 914 925 925
Strongest Igor Earl Fiona Julia Fiona Igor

We are getting close to the end of the season, so I wanted to take a few moments to put together a table of the predictions… Some of these have come pretty darn close to the mark!

Notes:

US Landfalls:

  • Bonnie made landfall in Homestead, FL as a Tropical Storm and continued into the Gulf of Mexico where she disrupted oil clean up efforts for days.
  • Hermine made landfall just south of Brownsville, Texas as a Tropical Storm making her a Mexico landing, but her flooding rains were felt a long ways inland as she moved into central Texas before becoming a remnant low.

US Near Misses:

  • Tropical Depression 5 – wasn’t strong enough to warrant much worry, other than for those in the middle of oil clean up in the Gulf of Mexico.  TD 5 forced operations to stop for a second time this season for safety reasons.
  • Earl made the east coast sit up and take notice.  He was a Category 4 Hurricane that was heading straight for the Carolinas, and came close enough to warrant watches and warnings along the coast.  This storm was not one to trifle with, and the world watched.
  • Igor made the east coast sit up and take notice for a second time, another category 4 hurricane that set it’s sights on the near by Bermuda islands.

Mexico and Bermuda were this year’s targets:

  • Alex – made landfall in Belize City, Belize, Crossed the Yucatan Peninsula continuing into the Bay of Campeche where he grew into a Category 2 Hurricane before making landfall again, this time close to La Yeguna where he was torn apart by the mountainous terrain.
  • Tropical Depression 2 – was dubbed Alex the 2nd followed in nearly the same path as Alex, but was never strong enough to be named.
  • Hermine – See above
  • Karl – made landfall just north of Belize in Chetumal, MX, crossed the Yucatan Peninsula continuing into the Bay of Campeche where he grew into a Category 3 Hurricane before making a second Mexico landfall just north of Veracruz, MX.
  • Matthew – made landfall first in Nicaragua near Puerto Cabezas where he left behind flooding rains in Honduras, then crossed over to land in Belize and moving to dissipate in Mexico.
  • Richard – landed as a Category 1 hurricane just south of Belize City, Belize

Bermuda:

  • Colin – was the first storm of the season to head for Bermuda, however he lost his Tropical Storm strength before arriving just off the west coast of Bermuda and dissipating or becoming a remnant low (will look back at the archives for actual final)
  • Danielle – was the second storm of the season to set it’s eye for Bermuda, however she was far off the mark, staying too far east to be a threat.
  • Fiona – only managed to gain Tropical Storm strength while following a similar path to Danielle, but fell apart just before Bermuda
  • Igor – See above
  • Shary – stayed off the east coast of Bermuda causing little to no effect on the area.

Cape Verde Storms:

  • Lisa – Normally when Cape Verde storms are mentioned, they are the starting point of hurricanes.  For the first time Cape Verde required Tropical Storm/Hurricane watches/warnings due to Lisa’s turning back toward the island before heading north into the Atlantic.

Caribbean Storms:

  • Alex, Karl, Matthew, Richard – see above
  • Nicole – was merely a tropical storm that crossed over Cuba and was caught by a front and was quickly transformed into an extratropical low.
  • Paula – appeared to be a Wilma in the making, but reached category 2 strength and was carried over Cuba where she expired
  • Tomas – threatened to be a major hurricane, however due to still unknown factors, this storm has not followed the expected intensity. Tomas also wobbled from his track, but has kept generally on the global forecast models which have been more spread than narrow in agreement. The biggest concern is earthquake ravaged Haiti which has many housed in tents. A major hurricane would have been catastrophic, however even a drenching tropical storm or depression could cause mudslides which would be equally catastrophic to those living in the tent cities. (Updates pending completion of Tomas)